According to Mastercard, U.S. retail sales (excluding automotive) for the 2025 holiday season, spanning November 1 to December 24, are projected to grow by approximately 3.6% year-over-year. While this represents steady growth, it is slightly more moderate compared to the robust online sales momentum seen earlier in the year.
Consumer behavior is showing notable shifts. Shoppers are becoming more cautious and value-oriented, prioritizing practical and essential purchases over luxury or discretionary items. Categories such as home goods, everyday electronics, and affordable gifts are seeing faster growth, reflecting a more budget-conscious approach during the holiday period.
Retailers are responding by highlighting value propositions, promotions, and convenient fulfillment options, such as fast shipping, buy-now-pay-later solutions, and seamless online-to-offline experiences. The 2025 holiday season is expected to reward companies that can balance affordability with convenience, while also leveraging digital tools to enhance shopper engagement and conversion.
Overall, the outlook suggests a holiday season characterized by moderate growth, cautious spending, and a focus on practical purchases, providing opportunities for retailers who can adapt to evolving consumer priorities.